Thanksgiving and football are the ideal pairing because both are distinctly American and while sports wagering isn’t a US-only phenomenon, plenty of domestic bettors will feast on football betting along with their turkey this week.
In a new report to clients, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon estimates that US bettors will place $4.5 billion worth of wagers this week in regulated markets. He defines Thanksgiving Week as the period spanning Nov. 25 to Dec. 1. That forecast implies year-over-year growth of 11% and while that $4.5 billion will likely include other sports, namely basketball, football — led by the NFL — will do the heavy lifting.
Football is the most wagered on sport in the US and this Thanksgiving, a record 38 states and Washington, DC permit some form of sports betting. Beynon estimates betting volumes will surge 15% this week compared to last year and the NFL is obliging bettors. There are three games on Thanksgiving and Kansas City Chiefs face the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday. That’s followed by the usual Sunday slate.
College football is helping, too. There are games throughout the week, including at least one on Thanksgiving and more than a dozen the next day.
Thanksgiving Football Could Benefit These Operators
Increased levels of Thanksgiving Week wagering should benefit the gaming industry in a broad sense,but operator-level advantages won’t be uniform.
Flutter Entertainment’s (NYSE: FLUT) and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) are the largest sportsbook companies by market share and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon, but Beynon sees smaller competitors gaining momentum this week. He said Bally’s (NYSE: BALY), Caesars Sportsbook, and Rush Street Interactive (NYSE: RSI) should see the largest year-over-year Thanksgiving Week hold expansion.
BetMGM is coming off two weeks of above-average hold of 11%+, which could represent significant upside should this trend persist,” wrote the analyst.
He added that based on New York November data through Nov. 18, DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook appeared to be making market share gains. Thanksgiving contributes to elevated football betting in another way. Each of that day’s three games are viewed by bettors as primetime affairs comparable to “Monday Night Football” and bettors are more inclined to invest in such games. For example, in week 12 of the NFL season, primetime games accounted for 37% of bets and 10% of handle, according to Macquarie.
Bullish on Betting Stocks
Beynon is constructive on equities with ties to sports betting, placing “outperform” ratings on Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR), DraftKings, ESPN Bet parent Penn Entertainment (NASDAQ: PENN), and Rush Street Interactive.
His preference is for operators with exposure to online gaming, including sports betting, due to the higher gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth profile.
“We favor Online for two reasons: 1) it is the only major Gaming sector not dependent on the economy for double-digit growth; and 2) it is the only Gaming sector that has consistently exceeded market expectations over the past two years. We forecast 4Q GGR of +23% (+23% online sports betting, +25% iGaming), and 2025E GGR +18% year-over-year,” he concluded.
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