The all-too-early race for the White House in 2028 is already underway just hours after President-elect Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris during the 2024 presidential election.
Trump is set to be sworn in for his second four-year term on Monday, Jan. 20, 2025. Bettors on the wagering exchange Kalshi are making early bets on who will be the Republican and Democratic parties’ respective nominees and which party will ultimately emerge victorious in four years.
Bettors on Kalshi, the only regulated online platform offering event contracts on binary political derivates, think Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is the favorite to represent the Democrats in four years. Kalshi bettors have Shapiro as the 2028 front-runner for the Democratic ticket, with his shares trading at implied odds of 18%.
Political pundits believe Harris’ decision not to pick Shapiro as her running mate, the third Jewish governor in Pennsylvania history, hurt her 2024 odds. Harris lost the critical swing state of Pennsylvania by 2%.
Leading Candidates
Following Shapiro is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who trails the Pennsylvania governor by just 1%. Newsom was considered a possible backup plan to President Joe Biden when rumblings suggested the president would step aside earlier this year. Party leaders, however, went with Harris.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is currently third on the Kalshi board with implied odds of 12%. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore is fourth at 7% and former First Lady Michelle Obama rounds out the top five at 6%.
On the Republican side, Trump will have exhausted his two terms in four years and is therefore no longer able to seek a third term. His 2024 running mate, Vice President-elect JD Vance, is the early favorite to represent the Republican ticket in 2028 and become the leader of the GOP.
Vance’s implied odds are at 59%. Donald Trump Jr., the president-elect’s eldest son, is next at 15%. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is third at 4%, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is fourth at 3%, and Missouri’s U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley is fifth at 1%.
As for which party will win, the Republicans maintain the narrowest lead at 51-49% over the Democrats.
Betting on the far-out outcomes has been light so far, as bettors taking early action will need to wait four years to see a return. The Democratic nominee market has fielded $4,900 in bets, while the GOP ticket has attracted $12,000. The 2028 outcome market has over $6,400 wagered.
Incoming Administration
Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, played a pivotal role in Trump’s reelection. He’s expected to be strongly considered for a spot in the president-elect’s administration.
Kalshi is taking action on whether Musk will be nominated to the Trump Cabinet, with his odds currently suggesting a 36% chance. Bettors like Robert Kennedy Jr’s chances for a Cabinet position better, with his shares trading at 76%.
The odds are good that Hawaii’s former U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, a Democrat turned Republican, will also snag an office in the West Wing. Her shares are at 59%.
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